Posted on: 16th December 2025

Why Bitcoin Keeps Stalling Below $100,000 — Even When the Big Buyers Step In

For much of the past year, Bitcoin has appeared to be on the brink of breaking through the psychologically important $100,000 level. Yet repeatedly, just as momentum seems to build, the rally fades. Most recently, this pattern reasserted itself when Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, announced a near-$1 billion Bitcoin purchase — only for the price to fall sharply soon afterwards.

At first glance, the reaction feels counter-intuitive. Large institutional buying has traditionally been associated with higher prices. However, Bitcoin today is no longer a niche or emerging asset. With a market capitalisation approaching $2 trillion, even billion-dollar purchases no longer carry the same influence they once did. In effect, Bitcoin has grown up — and its market behaviour has changed accordingly. 

Expectation plays a central role. Markets move on surprises, not on well-telegraphed actions. Michael Saylor’s ongoing accumulation strategy is widely known and closely followed. As a result, positioning often occurs well before announcements are made. By the time purchases are confirmed publicly, much of the impact has already been absorbed by the market, leaving little immediate upside. 

Importantly, Saylor is far from the only major buyer. Large asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity have become significant participants through their spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which together have attracted tens of billions of dollars in inflows. Firms such as ARK Invest, which have been vocal about their long-term conviction in Bitcoin, also maintain meaningful exposure. In addition, there is growing evidence of quiet, incremental participation by sovereign and quasi-sovereign investors, though such allocations are rarely disclosed in detail. 

Yet despite this breadth of institutional involvement, price movements remain restrained. This highlights a crucial structural shift. Large, steady inflows from institutions now tend to be absorbed gradually rather than acting as short-term price catalysts. In today’s Bitcoin market, ownership has become more institutional, but price discovery is increasingly driven elsewhere. 

That “elsewhere” is the derivatives market. Bitcoin’s short-term price action is now heavily influenced by futures, options and leveraged trading strategies. As prices approach key psychological levels, speculative positioning builds rapidly. Traders, often using borrowed capital, crowd into bullish bets. When momentum falters — even slightly — these leveraged positions are forced to unwind, triggering sharp and sudden sell-offs. 

This dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin repeatedly stalls near round-number milestones such as $100,000. Each advance attracts leverage, and leverage introduces fragility. Recent declines have been accompanied by significant liquidations of long positions, reinforcing the view that leverage — rather than a lack of buyers — is the primary constraint on price progress. 

Confidence also remains cautious. The market has yet to fully recover from the dislocations seen during October’s large liquidation event, which erased billions of dollars in value across the crypto ecosystem. Even traditionally supportive macroeconomic developments, including interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, have failed to restore sustained risk appetite. Instead, rallies continue to be treated as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than to build it. 

Lower trading volumes compound the issue. In thinner markets, price movements become more abrupt and less reliable. Breakouts struggle to gain traction, while reversals occur quickly. This environment favours short-term trading over long-term conviction and reinforces Bitcoin’s tendency to move sideways beneath major resistance levels. 

Taken together, Bitcoin’s inability to break decisively above $100,000 is less a mystery than a reflection of its evolution into a mainstream, heavily traded financial asset. Large buyers still matter, but they no longer dominate price action in the way they once did. The market is now shaped by leverage, derivatives and risk-management flows as much as by simple supply and demand.